Running the honest math…
We measured the distance between our conservative baseline and our higher achievable estimate across the 16 programs we track. These are our own planning estimates, with dated sources and methods. Journalists and researchers are welcome to cite individual figures with credit and a source link. Redistribution of the compiled dataset requires permission under our terms.
27%
average gap between our baseline and achievable estimates
50%
biggest gap: Chase Ultimate Rewards
$447
estimated value gap per 100,000 points at our two values
Our model gives each program a conservative baseline for planning and a higher achievable estimate for a strong redemption. Across the 16 programs we track, our baseline averages 27% below our achievable estimate. The largest gap is for Chase Ultimate Rewards, where our baseline is 50% below our achievable estimate. For 100,000 points, that difference averages $447 in our model. Actual redemption values vary.
The full report covers every program, the methodology, and the dollar cost. Read the points-valuation hype-gap study.
The one framing that matters
Our model publishes two estimates for each points program: a conservative baseline and a higher achievable case.
Across the 16 programs we track, our conservative baseline averages 27% below our achievable case.
The gap illustrates why a planning value should be checked against the redemption a traveler can actually book.
Attribute to Honest Points. Happy to provide a tailored quote or walk a reporter through the math. See contact below.
The public valuation feed
Honest Points is an independent travel-rewards optimizer. It tells people to use their points, get a specific card, or just pay cash, using conservative, transparent math. It says so plainly when points are the worse deal. Every points-to-dollars figure uses a conservative floor, published and dated. The site may earn from card and booking affiliate links, disclosed in the open, and the recommendation engine cannot read those payouts; the valuations are non-affiliate.
Press contact pending