The points valuation hype gap

1Findings, program by program

For each program: our conservative planning baseline, our achievable estimate, and how far the baseline sits below that estimate. Sorted by the largest gap first, Chase Ultimate Rewards leads, where the baseline is 50% below our achievable estimate.

Baseline shortfall = (achievable estimate − baseline) ÷ achievable estimate: the share by which our baseline falls below our achievable estimate. The full receipts, including the value difference for 100,000 points in our model and the reasoning behind every floor, are on the honesty receipts page.

2What we measured (and what we didn't)

This is an analysis of our own valuation data, not a survey of other sites. For every program we publish two planning estimates:

• The floor is the conservative cents-per-point estimate used in our calculations. Actual redemption values can differ.
• Our achievable estimate is a higher planning estimate for a well-planned redemption through transfer partners. It is not a guaranteed result.

The floor shortfall is the distance between them as a share of our achievable estimate. The value gap per 100,000 is the dollar difference between our two estimates for that many points. Every figure here is ours, dated 2026-06-08. See the full methodology for how each floor is set.

3Why the gap is the story

A higher value may be reachable on some redemptions, but availability, fees, and travel plans affect what a traveler actually receives. Our conservative baseline gives the planning tools a cautious starting point.

4Cite this study

Journalists and researchers are welcome to quote these figures with attribution and a link. The dataset is also published on this page as machine-readable schema.org structured data, so answer engines can cite it directly.